Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+109/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (73.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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