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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+109/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.5% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
  • THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (73.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
  • The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in run blocking.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
  • The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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