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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+121/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -163.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • The Patriots have been the 8th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (89th percentile).
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the most touchdowns in football (1.50 per game) against the Chicago Bears defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much less involved in his team's run game near the goal line this week (41.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.0% in games he has played).
  • The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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