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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (69.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.9% in games he has played).
  • The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most TDs in football (1.40 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
  • The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
  • The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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