Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (69.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.9% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most TDs in football (1.40 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.