Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots have been the 10th-most run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (74.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 0.33 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among RBs (80th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the most touchdowns in the NFL (1.08 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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