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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-179).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots have been the 9th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 48.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (74.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).

Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.36 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (81st percentile).

The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 24th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 8th-least TDs in the NFL (0.64 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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