Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Patriots have been the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (85th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most TDs in football (1.11 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (51.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.1% in games he has played).
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.