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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-523).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +302 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +296.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 43.9% red zone run rate.

The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Rhamondre Stevenson has run for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in football among running backs (85th percentile).

The New England Patriots have used some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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