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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.

The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to earn 3.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 11.8% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs.

With an outstanding 2.6 adjusted receptions per game (78th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson rates among the top running backs in the pass game in the league.

The Jets pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.7%) to running backs this year (88.7%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Patriots as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 55.7 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.7 per game) this year.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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