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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -164.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are huge underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

Rhamondre Stevenson has run a route on 56.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

In this game, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected by the projections to land in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.2 targets.

With a remarkable 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the top pass-game RBs in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-focused offense in the league (55.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in football.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Jets defense has yielded a puny 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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