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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Rhamondre Stevenson's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 80.9% to 85.8%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson's 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 18.5.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Chargers pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (78%) vs. RBs this year (78.0%).

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