Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an impressive 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 12.1% Target Rate this year shows a material decrease in his pass game workload over last year's 17.3% mark.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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