Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 5.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (16.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.3%).
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching performance been refined this season, averaging 4.0 yards per game vs a mere 1.1 last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 81.8% to 88.7%.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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