Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 25, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 3.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (12.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (5.3%).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Rhamondre Stevenson's pass-catching performance been refined this year, averaging 2.8 yards per game compared to a mere 1.1 last year.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.

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