Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 2.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.5%) to running backs since the start of last season (84.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.