Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 2, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to garner 7.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (19.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.3%).

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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