Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 64.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Rhamondre Stevenson to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
With an exceptional 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson stands among the leading pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 10.1% Target Rate this season conveys a a significant decrease in his pass game usage over last season's 17.3% figure.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
This year, the stout Saints defense has conceded a measly 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.