Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The projections expect Rhamondre Stevenson to total 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
With a terrific 23.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (88th percentile) this year, Rhamondre Stevenson ranks among the best RBs in the pass game in football.
Rhamondre Stevenson's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, compiling 8.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 6.49 mark last year.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Patriots, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 19.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 25.3.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Giants defense has yielded the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 24.0) vs. RBs this year.