Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 3.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson has put up a paltry 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 22nd percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 81.8% to 74.6%.

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