Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to earn 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his team's passing attack this year (17.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (5.9%).

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Rhamondre Stevenson has notched a meager -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 9th percentile among RBs.
Rhamondre Stevenson's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 85.4% to 78.8%.
Rhamondre Stevenson's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, averaging a measly 4.91 yards-per-target vs a 7.25 rate last season.

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