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Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+344/-662).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +379 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +344.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Rhamondre Stevenson's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 8.6.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

Rhamondre Stevenson has posted a mere -1.0 air yards per game this year: just 21st percentile among running backs.

The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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