Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-969).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +432 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +430.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Rhamondre Stevenson's 27.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 7.7.
Rhamondre Stevenson ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.10 per game.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.6 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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