Rhamondre Stevenson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-138/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 19.7 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (67.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.9% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.