Rhamondre Stevenson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rhamondre Stevenson

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-143/+103).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.1% run rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has earned 42.6% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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