Rhamondre Stevenson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson

RB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Rhamondre Stevenson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+118/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to total 15.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.