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Rex Burkhead

Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding 4.94 yards-per-carry.

The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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