Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (40.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.5% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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