Rex Burkhead Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-870).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -752 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -870.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
Rex Burkhead has earned 39.5% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Texans rank as the least run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 0.0% red zone run rate.
The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the least TDs in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans have gone for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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