Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -157 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to accrue 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Rex Burkhead's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.9% to 69.6%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the lowest Completion% in football (72.1%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (72.1%).
The Denver Broncos linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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