Rex Burkhead Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to garner 3.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 59.1 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.