Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.0% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to accumulate 4.7 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Rex Burkhead's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 79.9% to 74.9%.
Rex Burkhead's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a mere 3.88 yards-per-target compared to a 5.84 rate last year.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 32.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

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