Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to garner 3.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Rex Burkhead has notched a whopping 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Rex Burkhead's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten better this season, totaling 11.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.72 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 10th-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 59.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.