Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Rex Burkhead

NFL · Player Props

Rex Burkhead

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 10-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Rex Burkhead to accrue 3.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Rex Burkhead's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.9% to 69.6%.
Rex Burkhead's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.50 yards-per-target vs a 5.84 rate last year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded the lowest Completion% in football (72.1%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (72.1%).

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