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Rex Burkhead

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

Rex Burkhead Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -127.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.

The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Rex Burkhead's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 4.60 yards-per-target vs a 5.80 rate last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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