Rashod Bateman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Rashod Bateman

NFL · Player Props

Rashod Bateman

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashod Bateman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -167 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.
Rashod Bateman's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 52.5% to 67.3%.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 27.6 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Rashod Bateman has been relied on much less in his offense's passing game.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (51.9%) versus wideouts this year (51.9%).

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