Rashod Bateman Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Rashod Bateman

NFL · Player Props

Rashod Bateman

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashod Bateman Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+236/-376).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Rashod Bateman to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (17.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Rashod Bateman has been responsible for a whopping 29.7% of his team's air yards this year: 80th percentile among wideouts.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
Rashod Bateman's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.5% to 50.0%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.1%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

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