Rashid Shaheed Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Rashid Shaheed

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Rashid Shaheed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.5%) versus WRs this year (62.5%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.