Rashid Shaheed Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Rashid Shaheed

NFL · Player Props

Rashid Shaheed

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Rashid Shaheed Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 65.5 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Rashid Shaheed has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (33.0 per game).
Rashid Shaheed's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 26.4.

Favors Under

The Saints are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year.
Rashid Shaheed's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 81.7% to 63.5%.
Rashid Shaheed's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating just 10.24 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 11.92 figure last season.

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