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Rashid Shaheed Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+108/-141).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ +108.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Saints this year (a colossal 63.7 per game on average).This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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As it relates to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.Rashid Shaheed's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 81.7% to 62.0%.Rashid Shaheed's 9.9 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a a noteable reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 11.9 mark.With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Rashid Shaheed has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the league in the open field.When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the league.
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