Rashaad Penny Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Rashaad Penny has garnered 50.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Rashaad Penny has run for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (91st percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 4th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.