Rashaad Penny Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-212).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
Rashaad Penny has run for 0.46 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (89th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most touchdowns in football (1.30 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a less important option in his team's running game near the end zone this week (53.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.