Rashaad Penny Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-255).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +180 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Rashaad Penny has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in football (1.05 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 4th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a much smaller part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (32.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (45.4% in games he has played).
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.