Rashaad Penny Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+188/-274).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -242 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -274.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks rank as the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 50.0% red zone run rate.
Rashaad Penny has received 46.3% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Rashaad Penny has run for 0.55 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (93rd percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.