Rashaad Penny Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Rashaad Penny

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:10 PM EST

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-239).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -218 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -239.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Rashaad Penny's 4.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in football: 23rd percentile for RBs.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Rashaad Penny has been among the worst running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 16th percentile among running backs.

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