Rashaad Penny Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

Seattle Seahawks vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Rashaad Penny has been given 49.0% of his team's carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 4th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.