Rashaad Penny Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Rashaad Penny

RB · Seattle Seahawks

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Rashaad Penny Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to notch 13.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Rashaad Penny has earned 49.0% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.