Randall Cobb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Randall Cobb

NFL · Player Props

Randall Cobb

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Randall Cobb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-188).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.4%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (63.4%).

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