Randall Cobb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Randall Cobb

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Randall Cobb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+332/-626).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -599 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -626.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Randall Cobb to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (12.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Randall Cobb has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing an impressive 78.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Randall Cobb grades out in the 82nd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) to wideouts since the start of last season (60.6%).
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to WRs: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.