Randall Cobb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Randall Cobb

NFL · Player Props

Randall Cobb

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:35 PM EST

Analysis

Randall Cobb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+288/-500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -475 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -500.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Randall Cobb has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a terrific 77.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Randall Cobb grades out in the 85th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.36 per game.
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Randall Cobb has been been lightly used his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among WRs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the 6th-least TDs through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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