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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 42.8% run rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).

Raheem Mostert has averaged 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL when it comes to RBs (93rd percentile).

This year, the shaky Colts run defense has been gouged for a whopping 150.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 7th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

While Raheem Mostert has garnered 55.5% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Miami's run game this week at 31.9%.

Raheem Mostert's ground effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging just 3.14 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.12 rate last season.

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