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Raheem Mostert

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Raheem Mostert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Raheem Mostert has grinded out 71.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (96th percentile).

With an impressive rate of 5.08 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Raheem Mostert stands as one of the top pure rushers in football last year.

Raheem Mostert grades out as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 3.35 yards-after-contact last year while checking in at the 90th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 39.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.

Miami's passing stats last year may be artificially deflated (and running stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with better conditions in this week's game.

While Raheem Mostert has received 58.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Miami's running game this week at 44.3%.

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